Future Considerations' Director of Scouting Dan Stewart shares his thoughts on the 2013 draft's top guns and overall talent.
Ville Meuronen: It seems every draft is highly touted a year before Draft Day. Do you think if it's just media hype or is it difficult to get proper read on players before their draft year?
Dan Stewart: Ville, hope springs eternal for most talent evaluators. Every year scouts and media types can get a little excited about who is coming down the pipeline next, and with good reason, as every year there is a handful of raw future NHLers yet unclaimed as NHL property. Many of these prospects have shown very well in direct competition against those who where under the draft year microscope or whom might already be drafted by NHL teams.
When most talent evaluators scout kids that are draft eligible in that specific season they really tend to dig in and tear the layers apart in regards to both the strengths and weaknesses of each specific prospect. But when we look at the talent ahead of their draft seasons, evaluators tend to instead dwell more on ones strengths and positives instead of really digging into the nitty-gritty; getting into both the positives as well as the negatives. This tends to lead many to over inflate some of the prospects in line for the following draft before they even hit the ice for their actual draft season.
Other times the hype is warranted and these prospects are really as good as advertised.
VM: Which takes us to the next question that is going to require a good explanation. How good is the 2013 draft crop?
DS: Well Ville, the 2012 draft was a draft that had some decent depth but not much high end talent outside of the Yakupov’s and Galchenyuk’s. The depth throughout the top fifty prospects, after the high end guys were gobbled up, was relatively the same throughout and most teams were able to grab a solid prospect or two for the future. There are not many prospects that are expected to jump right into the NHL this coming season and make an impact from the last draft crop minus maybe Yakupov and Ryan Murray.
This season however there looks to be a defined top tier of five or six guys who could be top picks even though MacKinnon and Jones are getting most the hype early. Without getting into specifics, these guys are expected to become NHL stars to some extent. After these prospects the early view is that there is another sixty or seventy prospects that also display some ability to becomeNHL contributors. Every season there are a few guys that are not highly regarded that end up really progressing in their development as well as those who stall and fail to development (see Nick Ebert last year).
How close is the favourite #1 pick Nathan MacKinnon to his comparison Sidney Crosby in terms of talent?
DS: These guys are not the same player, they share a similar road, a similar origin and that is about it. We all need to be careful to not heap this kind of expectations to become the next Sid the Kid on Nathan or any other young kid. Nathan is his own player and while he has the skills and work ethic to be special, he still has a ways to go.
Comparing styles they are similar in body type, strong lower body and very strong on their feet. They are both hard workers and willing to do what it takes to produce a win. They both can score goals as well as set-up plays but MacKinnon does not have the same out of this world hockey sense that Crosby has at this time. If I had to compare MacKinnon as a projection at the NHL level I would say a Zach Parise is a better comparison. Nathan still has a ways to go and much work to do before he gets to Parise’s level though.
VM: MacKinnon's runner-up is Seth Jones who made decision to join Portland Winterhawks. Do you think playing in the tough WHL has positive or negative impact to his development?
DS: Honestly, just playing the game against strong competition regardless of what league it is in is what is prescribed to developing players this age but Jones picking the Dub as his development ground is likely a choice that will see his ascension to theNHL accelerated over other alternatives. The hope is that playing in a tough league like the WHL will bring out a little more of the physical side to Jones game as well as prepare him for the rigors of life on the road which he did get a taste of in the United States Hockey League.
VM: How much last year's sensations Sean Monahan, Alexander Barkov and Hunter Shinkaruk can improve this following season? Does Barkov have a big advantage to the other two thanks to his August 1995 birthdate?
DS: All three will need to continue to improve their play to maintain the high rankings they achieved off of last season’s performances. Monahan will be the go to guy offensively on a team that has many top end graduations as will Shinkaruk this season. Barkov will look to take on an even larger role in the SM-Liiga with Tappara and improve upon his mobility.
Failure to do so by any of these three would likely result in a drop in their rankings especially if some of their peers continue to develop at a strong rate throughout the year.
Not sure a birthdate gives any prospect an advantage over another. It all depends on what the development on the ice is like.
VM: Who do you like more and why: Rasmus Ristolainen or Ryan Pulock?
DS: Both of these prospects bring different playing styles and elements to the defensive position.
Ristolainen is a strong two-way defender who makes many of the subtle little plays to take care of his own zone first and foremost. He also moves the puck well and has some size which he uses although not to hammer opponents but more so for positioning reasons. He will be a nice addition to a team as a safe reliable all-situation defender.
Pulock is an offensive generating machine who still needs to sharpen up in his own zone. His passing skills, vision on the ice and point shot are impressive and he will likely QB a power play at the next level because of these skills. He has decent size but is not very physical with it.
Trying to remain impartial but if I were drafting my team and had to decide right now between the two I think I would go with Ristolainen because of his ability to do-it-all and play a safe, no panic game. That by no means should be read to mean that Pulock will not become a strong or even better NHLer than Ristolainen down the road, but instead show my penchant to make the safe pick over one that has some risk/reward as Pulock has.
VM: Valeri Nichushkin made a choice to stay in Russia for his draft year. Could he already be a faller in the rankings due this decision or is he too talented to be drafted outside top10/top20/first round?
DS: Unfortunately whenever a Russian prospect decides to stay home, no matter if he plays in the KHL or MHL, for his draft season rather than make the trek over to the CHL their draft stock takes a hit with NHL clubs. With these organizations spending so much time and money on developing these draft picks they can not afford to loose a high end draft pick by gambling on an uncommitted Russian prospect who could easily stay home or return home if he does not get the playing time or roster spot expected. Nichushkin, no matter how talented, will likely feel this “factor” as well and slip down most NHL draft boards from where his talents should have him. Scouting services will handle these situations a little different as they do not have to think about certain factors that NHL teams need to take into consideration. They rank typically based on projection in the NHL only.
VM: FC doesn't have goaltenders in the first round of your preliminary ranking. Are draft hopefuls Eric Comrie, Zach Fucale and Spencer Martin lesser prospects than the 2012 draft's big three Vasilevski, Subban and Dansk?
DS: Goaltender is the hardest position to gauge or project for the future. We typically see more skaters; whether they are forwards or defenders, get healthy amounts of ice time the year or even two years before they become NHL draft eligible.
Goaltenders rarely get more than a handful of games to show what they can do. Because of that we typically start each year with very little in the way of goaltenders in our top round. Give it some time and they will start to rise to the top as they always do. Actually, if you look back to our Preliminary Rankings for the 2012 draft you will notice those three mentioned from the 2012 crop (Vasilevski, Subban, Dansk) were not included in our top 30 rankings at that point either.
Regarding the comparisons of last year’s top goaltenders to this year’s group, I would say it is far too early to definitively tell. Both Fucale and Comrie looked very good in games played last year as did Martin. But to answer the question though, no, I do not think it fair to say because these guys are not in our preliminary rankings which were compiled last April that they are not as strong as the 2012 draftees.
VM: Outside of the most hyped prospects who players by your prediction will turn most heads in the Ivan Hlinka Tournament?
DS: That is hard to say as every year there are a couple guys who really step up their play and rocket up the draft board. If I were to look into my crystal ball and predict one I would say Swedish defender Anton Cederholm playing with the Rogle club would be my top pick to earn himself some positive hype. He will be a tower of power on the Swedish blueline with Robert Hagg.
Also, keep an eye on Canadians Shea Theodore and Jason Dickinson as a couple offensive guys who really could breakout at this event.
VM: Who is your personal favourite Finn not named Barkov or Ristolainen?
DS: I can’t pick just one as I truly have no favorites at this stage in the season but these are some other names we are watching for the next NHL draft. I understand that these guys might be considered “household names” to your audience Ville, but guys like forwards Juuso Ikonen and Artturi Lehkonen as well as goaltender Ville Husso will have many eyes on them this season.
The tiny but highly skilled Ikonen will get some minutes in the SM-Liiga this coming season and should be able to produce good offensive numbers while Lehkonen is a natrual goal scorer whose skills should keep him high in the draft discussion all year. Husso could challenge as the drafts top Euro puck stopper this season as he has the size and the mobility that NHL teams covet.
Others to keep an eye on from Finland included big defenseman Santeri Saari of Jokerit who can play the game any way you want- physical, defensive minded or by moving the puck quickly. Small but skilled defender Mikke Levo of Ilves who moves the puck up ice accurately and quickly is another one to keep an eye on. Forward Joose Antonen who will be suiting up with JYP this season is another good draft prospect with potential who possesses a solid frame to build strength too and some solid offensive skills.
VM: Finally, you have a chance to promote your scouting services.
DS: Future Considerations (www.futureconsiderations.ca) is a website and service designed to give hockey fans and draft enthusiasts another source of information based on views that we gather throughout the year on the top prospects eligible for the upcoming as well as future drafts. We have a staff of writers and talent evaluators of over thirty and our coverage is truly global.
If you have any questions about what we do or want more information on our products you can visit the website or email me atdanstewart@futureconsiderations.ca
Thank you Dan for sacrificing your summer time for draft fanatics.
Ei kommentteja:
Lähetä kommentti